Bush M.O.

The Bush family (President George H. W. Bush, President George W. Bush & Govenor Jeb bush) have all benefitted from supposedly un-allied groups attacking their political opponents during campaigns. Every time they profess to have no ties to and no coordination with the attacking group. These groups occasionally make a good point, but most often it seems they just smear. How many times can the scenario be run before the pattern counts as evidence?

A group attacked Gov. Dukakis over "Willie Horton" with lies and inuendo. Several of the same people were in a group which attacked Bill Clinton as a "Draft Dodger" and "Protest Organizer allied with or controlled by Communists."

In the current election cycle we have the group (again comprised of substantilly the same people) which calls itself "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" who have published a string of lies. The President's campaign says Kerry brought it on himself by raising the issue of his service at the DNC - even though it is obvious that the group's book had to have been begun at the latest by January.

Now the tactic has refracted some light on to George W. Bush's service record. And they have the unmitigated gall to claim the President has done nothing to deserve such attack. They equate the unsupported lies of the Swift Boaters to the documented truth by claiming "It is all just a Democratic smear."

Keep in mind that the information presented and supported about President Bush's service record has not been denied. Rather than address the facts, they try to discredit the rather unimportant evidence.

Hurricanes

A Hurricane is not a force to be trufled with for many, many reasons -- not the least of which is its unpredicablity. Over the last approximately 5 decades, Scientists have made amazing strides in determining what measurements to make and how to make them. Many (probably most) of the measurements they know how to make have proved to be useless for prediction. Several of the measurements seem to be vital for prediction. The majic mix of measurements has not yet been found.

The one certainty, still, is that Hurricanes remain unpredictable for reasons as yet unknown.

Given all that, it just made me whomper-jawed when I heard Geraldo Rivera say that forecasters were getting almost prefect. He said that Hurricane Francis made landfall essentially where it ws predicted to from a week in advance. The silly part of this statement is that in the intervening week, the predictions changed 3 or 4 times a day -- every time a new set of measurements was made. As Francis approached land, the projected path shifted northward -- meaning that the predictions got more wrong.

I wish "Reporters" would just report. I guess it is the desire to seem more knowledgable (Teacher Syndrome) that makes a person want to make these pronouncements. It just makes them look silly.

The National Hurricane Center says their predictions have a less than 48% probability rating when the time lapse goes over 8 hours. The probability gets lower when the storm moves slower. We all need to keep that in mind.

Hurricane Ivan could stop in its tracks and peter out. It could move in any directions -- including backwards, or around in circles. Hurricanes are unpredictable.

Hello (aka: Whatmidoin?)

I've just opened this blog. What a concept!

I have no idea what I'll end up doing with this. I have known for some time that "writing it out" clarifies and concentrates a thought. Often in the process I find that the orignal thought was off base, and can be adjusted to end up with a whole, rational thought.

Of course, i also find often that the original thought was too muddled, and I end up scrapping it.

I expect to have both.