Hurricanes

A Hurricane is not a force to be trufled with for many, many reasons -- not the least of which is its unpredicablity. Over the last approximately 5 decades, Scientists have made amazing strides in determining what measurements to make and how to make them. Many (probably most) of the measurements they know how to make have proved to be useless for prediction. Several of the measurements seem to be vital for prediction. The majic mix of measurements has not yet been found.

The one certainty, still, is that Hurricanes remain unpredictable for reasons as yet unknown.

Given all that, it just made me whomper-jawed when I heard Geraldo Rivera say that forecasters were getting almost prefect. He said that Hurricane Francis made landfall essentially where it ws predicted to from a week in advance. The silly part of this statement is that in the intervening week, the predictions changed 3 or 4 times a day -- every time a new set of measurements was made. As Francis approached land, the projected path shifted northward -- meaning that the predictions got more wrong.

I wish "Reporters" would just report. I guess it is the desire to seem more knowledgable (Teacher Syndrome) that makes a person want to make these pronouncements. It just makes them look silly.

The National Hurricane Center says their predictions have a less than 48% probability rating when the time lapse goes over 8 hours. The probability gets lower when the storm moves slower. We all need to keep that in mind.

Hurricane Ivan could stop in its tracks and peter out. It could move in any directions -- including backwards, or around in circles. Hurricanes are unpredictable.